The US equity market just reached new highs, and it broke many records. For example, Bloomberg reported that the US market had not been overbought like this in 21 years. The S&P 500 Index’s superlative start to 2018 is making a contrarian technical indicator look silly. The benchmark gauge is poised to end trading Thursday…Read More Correlation Breakdown
The sell-off in the high yield bond Exchange Traded Funds space last month reminds us of an important risk factor: liquidity. But what exactly is liquidity risk? According to Aleksander Kocic, derivatives strategist at Deutsche Bank AG, Liquidity transforms the risk of default (the ability that the debtor may not be able to pay back…Read More Liquidity Risk and Exchange Traded Funds
Peter Carr recently gave a talk on volatility trading at the Fields institute. Summary: In general, an option’s fair value depends crucially on the volatility of its underlying asset. In a stochastic volatility (SV) setting, an at-the-money straddle can be dynamically traded to proﬁt on average from the diﬀerence between its underlying’s instantaneous variance rate…Read More Volatility, Skew, and Smile Trading
Value at Risk (VaR) is an important risk measure that large financial institutions use for managing the risks and allocating capital. Wikipedia defines VaR as follows: Value at Risk (VaR) is a measure of the risk of investments. It estimates how much a set of investments might lose, given normal market conditions, in a set…Read More Is Value at Risk a Good Risk Measure?
The volatility index was created more than 30 years ago. Since then it has become a favorite tool for both speculation and risk management. There is now strong evidence that VIX futures and related exchange-traded products are changing the market dynamics. Specifically, in the early days of the VIX, the cash market led the futures.…Read More What Do Creators of the VIX Think of Volatility?
Credit derivatives, the types of complex financial instruments that were responsible for the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis, are back to the news. Two months ago, Frances Schwartzkopff of Bloomberg reported, A complex credit product that regulators are still trying to get their heads around is proving popular with some big institutional investors in Europe. The…Read More Credit Derivatives-Is This Time Different?
Last Thursday witnessed, again, another dramatic increase in volatility. The volatility index VIX spiked 44 percent to 16.04%, its highest daily close for the year. As shown below, the VIX futures term structure inverted in the short end. Two days before the event, Helen Bartholomew of Reuters warned that the net short position in the…Read More VIX Futures Leads Cash Market: Tail Wags Dog
It happened again, and again. Last Thursday volatility increased sharply at around 1.30 p.m, then it came back to normal at the end of day. For now, we ignore the cause. But this event reinforced our observation: sharp volatility spikes occur more and more frequently these days. In a low volatility environment like this one,…Read More Potential Black Swans and How to Hedge Against Them
Quantitative trading has become a topic du jour lately. Many investors have been considering allocating more capital to quantitative funds. However, not all experts share the same opinion regarding the merits of quantitative strategies. There are even quants among the skeptics. Emanuel Derman is one of the most respected experts in the quant community. He…Read More Do Quantitative Trading Models Work?
Will this low volatility persist and can a large market decline happen in this environment? Aaron Brown recently published an article in which he pointed out that a large jump in realized volatility happens only when the VIX is above 20. …the important thing is that there aren’t big surprises at low levels of the…Read More How Long Will Low Volatility Last?