Last week, professor and Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller came out with a statement regarding the market high valuation. He referred to the CAPE ratio which is at 29 at the moment and is considered high. However, he also said that the high CAPE ratio does not necessarily mean investors should sell stocks right now. Still,…Read More Where are the Cheap Hedges for Equity Portfolios?
Last week, after the French election, the VIX plummeted and started its journey into the low-volatility regime again. Consequently, volatility selling strategy began gaining traction. However, FT.com published a warning Jim Keohane, the chief executive of the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan, compares selling volatility to picking up dimes in front of a steamroller. “You…Read More Why is Volatility so Low?
More and more investors are using the power of computing technologies and quantitative techniques to manage their portfolios these days. They believe that quantitative trading can help reduce the PnL volatility resulted from emotional decision making and thus increase the consistency of returns. However, sometimes the machine beats the man, and sometimes it does not.…Read More Quantitative Trading: VIX Factor Model and Trend Following
Two weeks ago, in a post entitled To Hedge or Not to Hedge, we argued that it’s always important for corporations to hedge the commodity prices and not to speculate. This post continues with more examples that highlight the importance of economic hedging. As oil price fluctuates, airlines can see their revenue vary widely. They…Read More More Examples as Why Hedging is Important
In a previous post, we examined the relationship between the Credit Default Swap (CDS) and equity volatility, and argued that there is a strong correlation between them. But like any relationship in financial markets, this one can break down and divergence can happen. For instance, last month we noticed that CDS in Asia and Australia…Read More Divergence Between Credit Default Swap and Equity Volatility
Yesterday the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said at a University of Michigan event that the Fed planned to raise short-term interest rates. “I think we have a healthy economy now … but it’s been a long time coming,” Yellen said. Yellen said the current unemployment rate of 4.5% is “even a little bit below”…Read More Another Look at Prepayment Risk of Mortgage-Backed Securities
Last week, Bloomberg presented a fascinating story about Mexico’s secretive oil hedging program. We noted that while it was designed as a hedge, the Mexican government has made money consistently with it. If anything, recent results have made the Mexican government look especially good. The country earned $6.4 billion in 2015 and $2.7 billion in…Read More To Hedge or Not to Hedge
In a previous post we discussed how IFRS 9 will affect commodity firms through hedge accounting programs. Generally speaking, as pointed out by Thack Brown in this post, IFRS 9 will affect financial and non-financial corporates through: 1-New classification and measurement principles for financial assets, 2- New impairment models that will accelerate recognition of credit…Read More How Will IFRS 9 Affect Financial Institutions?
After an increase in volatility, equity markets seem to be going back into the state of calmness. Additionally, with Easter coming up, volume and volatility are expected to remain low, at least for a couple of weeks. However, beside the equity world, the credit market is experiencing a tightening as well. The graph below shows…Read More Relationship Between Credit Default Swaps and Equity Options
Equity markets were relatively calm after the US election. The recent weeks, however, have seen some increase in volatility. Is this just a blip or the start of a volatile period? Nobody knows the exact answer. But Gregory Meyer et al of FT.com reported that there are firms, notably DRW, based in Chicago, that already…Read More Hedging in the Mortgage Backed Securities Market Can Increase Volatilities