RISK MANAGEMENT

In a previous post, we presented theory and a practical example of calculating implied volatility for a given stock option. In this post, we are going to implement a model for forecasting the implied volatility. Specifically, we are going to use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast the volatility index, VIX. In…

In a previous post, we presented an example of volatility analysis using Close-to-Close historical volatility. In this post, we are going to use the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to forecast volatility. In econometrics, the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model is a statistical model for time series data that describes the variance of the…

In the previous post, we introduced the Garman-Klass volatility estimator that takes into account the high, low, open, and closing prices of a stock. In this installment, we present an extension of the Garman-Klass volatility estimator that also takes into consideration overnight jumps. Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator consists of using the returns of open, high,…

In the previous post, we introduced the Parkinson volatility estimator that takes into account the high and low prices of a stock. In this follow-up post, we present the Garman-Klass volatility estimator that uses not only the high and low but also the opening and closing prices. Garman-Klass (GK) volatility estimator consists of using the…

In the previous post, we discussed the close-to-close historical volatility. Recall that the close-to-close historical volatility (CCHV) is calculated as follows, where xi are the logarithmic returns calculated based on closing prices, and N is the sample size. A disadvantage of using the CCHV is that it does not take into account the information about…

In a previous post, we touched upon a stock’s volatility through its beta. In this post, we are going to discuss historical volatilities of a stock in more details. Also referred to as statistical volatility, historical volatility gauges the fluctuations of underlying securities by measuring price changes over predetermined periods of time. It is the…

In the previous post, we presented a system for trading VXX, a volatility Exchange Traded Note. The trading system was built based on simple moving averages.  In this post, we are going to examine the time series properties of VXX in more details. The figure below shows the VXX and its 200-day moving average for…