TRADING

Accounting numbers are prevalent in financial reporting, business valuation, and investment management. They’re so frequently used that the practitioners rarely asked pragmatic questions such as: are they useful, do they account for some meaningful risks, can they be used to price assets. A recent article [1] attempts to bring some answers to these questions, This…

Read More Are Accounting Numbers Useful?

Options market efficiency is a topic of interest not only to academics but also to practitioners. There is a body of research focusing on market inefficiency. For example, we recently highlighted a research paper dealing with sector ETFs’ implied volatilities and correlations. The research result implies that the options market is not efficient, as one…

Read More Are Index Options Markets Efficient?

We previously demonstrated that stock indices exhibit mean-reverting property in the short term and trending property in the long term. Reference [1] further explored the trending/mean-reverting properties in a longer timeframe and pointed out that in the very long term, the markets mean-revert, We provide further evidence that markets trend on the medium term (months)…

Read More Further on Trending/Mean-Reverting Properties of Stock Indices

The volatility risk premium is a common phenomenon that exists in the volatility space. It is often defined as a stock’s or index’s implied volatility (IV) minus its realized volatility (RV). For equity indices, over the long term IV is generally greater than RV, thus giving rise to the popularity of short volatility trading strategies.…

Read More Predicting Volatility Risk Premium Through Sector Implied Correlation

Volatility term structure is believed to be a common phenomenon across asset classes. In equity indices, it’s well-known that implied volatility (IV) is generally greater than realized volatility (RV) (i.e. there exists a so-called volatility risk premium), and out-of-the-money (OTM) IV is greater than at-the-money (ATM) IV (i.e. there exists a so-called volatility skew). The…

Read More Volatility Term Structure of the DAX Index

Most of the studies on time-series momentum have been performed in the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. Relatively less research has been conducted in the intraday timeframe. So naturally, we would ask the question: Does the momentum exist intraday? Reference [1] answers this question. It examined the time-series momentum of the SP500 index in the…

Read More Does Intraday Momentum Exist in Stock Indices?

Trend following is a popular trading strategy used by Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) and Hedge Funds around the world. The traded assets are often futures on commodities, FX, fixed-income, and equity indices. We previously demonstrated that stock indices exhibit trending property in the long term, i.e. their returns are positively autocorrelated. We subsequently developed a…

Read More Does Trend Following Work on Single-Name Stocks?

Testing and validating a trading strategy is an important step in trading system development. It’s a commonly-known fact that a well-optimized trading strategy’s performance often deteriorates after it goes live. Thus, developing a robust strategy that performs well out-of-sample is quite a challenge. To this effect, we previously discussed a multiple testing framework for validating…

Read More Why and How Systematic Trading Strategies Decay After Going Live

The trading literature deals mostly with the design and development of trading strategies. There is very little discussion on the topic of how to properly validate them, and most of the system validation techniques have been developed under a traditional statistical framework. Article [1], however, argued that using a traditional single testing framework is not…

Read More What Are the Correct Methods for Evaluating a Trading Strategy?

Pair trading or statistical arbitrage is a popular quantitative trading strategy. Basically, we choose a pair of assets for trading, and when the assets’ prices diverge, we bet on them to revert back to the mean. The assets are often stocks, but they can be anything, ranging from commodities, interest rate products, to exchange-traded funds.…

Read More Cointegration or Correlation, Which Method is Better for Pair Trading?